Every Wednesday I'll chat with Scott and Rick from Waiting For Next Year on some pertinent and timely topic. This week, you'll get one today, and another one on Wednesday. Lucky you.
Topic: The mess at the QB position
Rick: Do I care which one we keep? Yes. I want us to keep the right one. Particularly if the 'right one' is Brady Quinn. We have a lot invested in him, and he would 'still be able to compete in 2-3 years'. Think about Troy Aikman's career. Quinn could be in the same boat, but he shouldn't get abused like Aikman was early with Thomas and Steinbach on his left. Now, if Quinn isn't good enough then I don't care if he gets traded. Or DA. I'll invest myself in what names are on the back of the jersey once we know if they can play.
Vince: Let's say you're a GM with two quarterbacks. Ya know, hypothetically. The two are pretty close in talent, but you're pretty sure QB1 is the guy you wanna keep and QB2 is the guy you want to trade.
Wouldn't it make sense, from a value-received point of view, to proclaim that they are equal? Ya know, like having an "open competition" or something like that. Wouldn't that either serve to maybe bring in more offers or up the offers for QB2?
The point is: Don't you get the sense that this is posturing? They're going to rebuild through the draft, Anderson's $1.5 million is very cap friendly to another team.....
Scott: The danger with that is when a team downgrades the value of QB1 instead of increasing the value of QB2.
BQ is the unknown. If the world thinks that DA blows, then what stops them from valuing BQ as the equal to DA if our team thinks/says that that's the case?
Vince: Then, your gut says they're both still here after Draft Day?
Rick: If they have decided that Brady is going to be the QB, then this is absolutely posturing. You tell Brady he's the guy, or leak it to his agent or whatever, then you publicly praise Anderson. If they are both still here when camps starts I would be fairly surprised.
Scott: Gut? Yes. But only because this team has done nothing that would actually be perceived as something strategic. Camp is a different story. I guess I think that DA will be moved ON draft day. Is that a cop out?
Vince: Sort of. But that's okay. I guess my question is. What's his value? And will that change in the coming weeks?
Scott: I don't think his value will change. I'd love a third-rounder at this point, but think it will be a fourth.
The question THEN remains, would it be better to have BQ and a fourth-rounder. Or DA and a first- or second- rounder?
Vince: And that question can't be answered by looking at the short term. This takes some down the road vision.
If they think they have enough other draft pieces on the table, and think this team could be a viable playoff contender in two to three years, then I think you keep BQ and augment the million holes on this team with the fourth-rounder.
If they think that this team is 3-5 years away from contending — basically, enough time to either bring in a new semi-established QB through free agency or trade or enough time to draft one and start this process over again (please, let it not be that), then you trade BQ because you need as many first or second rounders as possible. Sure, admitting that there's a gazillion needs on the team is a short-term view, but it also takes into account how long it'll take those picks to contribute in a meaningful way.
Scott: And considering that we were told that we weren't rebuilding only a few months ago, compared to what we've seen, getting ANYONE to admit that we're three years away may be a pipe dream.
Rick: More than anything that is what makes me mad Scott. We went after 'an experienced head coach' thinking we had a lot of the pieces in place, then they just starting blowing the place up. If we were expecting a complete rebuild, would you have wanted Mangini? I think there were other candidates I would have rather had. I certainly would rather have Pioli and whoever he picked to be the coach than this pair heading into a rebuild.
Vince: Rick, I'm feel the same way.
Pioli would be the top candidate for a rebuild. Look what he's doing in KC. The coach matters, but only to a certain extent when the priority is acquiring talent rather than dealing with what you have.
That being said, I do think Mangini's no-nonsense guise will work on these young guys, and maybe molding them with that mindset from the very start isn't a bad thing at all.
The question, I guess, is if rebuilding is the priority, is Kokinis the man for the job?
Scott: He has to be. Too late now. We really won't know for about another 3 years.
I wonder if he's truly making these decisions.
Rick: Right Scott, is Kokinis really calling the shots? We don't need another coach/GM too much responsibility for one guy without championship level experience at the HC position.
Vince: Is it shocking to assume that he's not making the decisions? I mean — channeling SNL for a minute — Really?!?
When Mangini was hired first, when Kokinis was lined up as the front runner, wasn't that what everyone talked about?
Rick: Right, and that's the point. We were willing to go along with it without making too much of a fuss because we were led to believe that this wasn't the complete overhaul. But now...
Vince: So either Randy Lerner was so clueless about the state of the team, or he lied to us?
Rick: Or Mangini sold him a bill of goods. Once he started making trades and cutting players what recourse does Lerner have? Or does he even know about it yet???
Scott: I think it is a combination of both. He's lying to us because he would be viewed in an even worse light. But I really find it difficult to believe that he knows how to run a football organization.
Then again, I wouldn't know as he won't speak to the media...
Vince: Maybe we should ask Mike Keenan...